BAFTA Picks

I love the BAFTA awards.  As someone who is primarily of English and Irish ancestry, I do my best to put aside the imperialist history for a moment and recognize the pomp, dry wit and refined taste that is in my English genetics.  I think about my short time staying in the East End, Dancing in the West End and consuming scotch in every crowded pub along the way.

So as the curtain opens at the Royal Opera House in Covent Garden, I will be just as riveted as the British and European film lovers.  However, this is the one awards show where I will claim no special knowledge of the will of BAFTA voters apart from this... they recently have tended to predict the Oscars in major film categories.  The awards show will appear on BBC America several hours after the awards finish in England so if you love the spontaneous "winners" go media free until you tune in.

That being said, there was some controversy with regard to the film "Argo" this year.  Some felt it implied in a very short part of the film that the British were unsympathetic to the plight of the escaped American Embassy employees who escaped and were seeking safety inside an embassy.  Based on the quote it seemed that only the Canadians were willing to take them .  It was later shown that this was not historically accurate.  However, the film did not go into detail but mainly stated where the Americans had been before the Canadian Embassy.  However, it remains to be seen whether the "slight" will make a difference to BAFTA voters or not.  At least it adds a bit of intrigue!

Here are my picks (not predictions but my favorites (or favourites as the case may be;)

Best film



"Argo" - Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney


"Les Misérables" - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh


"Life of Pi" - Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark


"Lincoln" - Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy


"Zero Dark Thirty" - Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison



My Pick: Argo

British film



"Anna Karenina" - Joe Wright, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Paul Webster, Tom Stoppard


"The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" - John Madden, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Ol Parker


"Les Misérables" - Tom Hooper, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh, William Nicholson, Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer


"Seven Psychopaths" - Martin Mcdonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin


"Skyfall" - Sam Mendes, Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, John Logan



This category is a tough one.  I adored 3 (Anna Karenina, Les Miserables and Seven Psychopaths) and liked the other two... but each for completely different reasons.  I am going with the most mesmerizing art direction I have seen all year.

My pick: Anna Karenina

Film Not In The English Language 



"Amour" - Michael Haneke, Margaret Ménégoz
"Headhunters" - Morten Tyldum, Marianne Gray, Asle Vatn


"The Hunt" - Thomas Vinterberg, Sisse Graum Jørgensen, Morten Kaufmann


"Rust and Bone" - Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux


'Untouchable" - Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache, Nicolas Duval Adassovsky, Yann Zenou, Laurent Zeitoun



Amour is likely to get the nod here, but I preferred "Rust and Bone" and "Untouchable".  

My Pick:  "Rust and Bone" 

Documentary



"The Imposter" - Bart Layton, Dimitri Doganis
"Marley" - Kevin Macdonald, Steve Bing, Charles Steel


"McCullin" - David Morris, Jacqui Morris


"Searching For Sugar Man" - Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn


"West of Memphis" - Amy Berg



I loved "Searching for Sugarman" although "West of Memphis" is a weightier subject.

My Pick: Searching for Sugarman

Animated film



"Brave" - Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman


"Frankenweenie" - Tim Burton

"Paranorman" - Sam Fell, Chris Butler



My favorite will be 3rd in this race behind "Brave" and "Frankenweenie".

My Pick:  Paranorman

Director



"Amour" - Michael Haneke


"Argo" - Ben Affleck


"Django Unchained" - Quentin Tarantino


"Life of Pi" - Ang Lee


"Zero Dark Thirty" - Kathryn Bigelow

I am going to predict BAFTA may shake this category up a bit from the previous awards shows and take Ang Lee or Hanaeke.  My pick remains the same however.

My Pick:  Argo - Ben Affleck

Original screenplay



"Amour" - Michael Haneke


"Django Unchained" - Quentin Tarantino


"The Master" - Paul Thomas Anderson


"Moonrise Kingdom" - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola


"Zero Dark Thirty" -` Mark Boal



No clue where the Brits will go with this one.

My Pick: Django Unchained

Adapted screenplay



"Argo" - Chris Terrio 


"Beasts of the Southern Wild" - Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin


"Life of Pi" - David Magee


"Lincoln" - Tony Kushner


"Silver Linings Playbook" - David O. Russell



My Pick: Lincoln - Tony Kushner

Leading Actor



Ben Affleck - "Argo"


Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"


Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"


Hugh Jackman - "Les Misérables"


Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"



He has a head of steam and no one can stop him now.

My Pick:  Daniel Day-lewis

Leading Actress



Emmanuelle Riva - "Amour"


Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"


Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"


Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"


Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone"



There may be some excitement as Marion Cotillard is adored, Emmanuelle Riva will get more serious consideration in Europe and then the favorites Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are still there.

My Pick: Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor



Alan Arkin - "Argo"


Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"


Javier Bardem - "Skyfall"


Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"


Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"



Tommy Lee Jones or Alan Arkin may be the favorites here, but I preferred The bearded dentist turned bounty hunter.

My Pick: Cristoph Waltz for Django Unchained.

Supporting Actress



Amy Adams - "The Master"


Anne Hathaway - "Les Misérables"


Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"


Judi Dench - "Skyfall"


Sally Field - "Lincoln"
 


My Pick: (Everyone's Pick) Anne Hathaway

Original Music



"Anna Karenina" - Dario Marianelli


"Argo" - Alexandre Desplat


"Life of Pi" - Mychael Danna


"Lincoln" - John Williams


"Skyfall" - Thomas Newman



Again no clue so I am going with my favorite.

My Pick: Anna Karenina

Cinematography



"Anna Karenina" - Seamus Mcgarvey


"Les Misérables" - Danny Cohen


"Life of Pi" - Claudio Miranda


"Lincoln" - Janusz Kaminski


"Skyfall" - Roger Deakins



This should be a no brainer.

My Pick - "Life of Pi"

Editing 



"Argo" - William Goldenberg


"Django Unchained" - Fred Raskin


"Life of Pi" - Tim Squyres
"Skyfall" - Stuart Baird


"Zero Dark Thirty" - Dylan Tichenor, William Goldenberg



Zero Dark Thirty may win a consolation prize here but it was an hour and a half too long. 

My Pick:  Argo

Production Design



"Anna Karenina" - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer


"Les Misérables" - Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
"Life of Pi" - David Gropman, Anna Pinnock


"Lincoln" - Rick Carter, Jim Erickson


"Skyfall" - Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock

All of these were brilliant in the production design area.  Probably a "Les Mis" category for the BAFTAs.

My Pick - "Anna Karenina"

Costume Design



"Anna Karenina" - Jacqueline Durran


"Great Expectations" - Beatrix Aruna Pasztor


"Les Misérables" - Paco Delgado


"Lincoln" - Joanna Johnston


"Snow White and the Huntsman" - Colleen Atwood



Again, should be a no brainer.

My Pick:  Anna Karenina

Make Up & Hair



"Anna Karenina" - Ivana Primorac


"Hitchcock" - Julie Hewett, Martin Samuel, Howard Berger


"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" - Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor, Rick Findlater


"Les Misérables" - Lisa Westcott


"Lincoln" - Lois Burwell, Kay Georgiou



My pick is based on the abundance of prosthetics, yet Hitchcock could pull an Iron Lady here.

My Pick:  The Hobbit

Sound



"Django Unchained" - Mark Ulano, Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Wylie Stateman


"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" - Tony Johnson, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Brent Burge, Chris Ward


"Les Misérables" - Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Jonathan Allen, Lee Walpole, John Warhurst


"Life of Pi" - Drew Kunin, Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton, Ron Bartlett, D. M. Hemphill


"Skyfall" - Stuart Wilson, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Per Hallberg, Karen Baker Landers



Crapshoot

My Pick:  Skyfall

Special Visual Effects



"The Dark Knight Rises" - Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Peter Bebb, Andrew Lockley


"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" - Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White


"Life of Pi" - Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer


"Marvel Avengers Assemble" - Nominees TBC


"Prometheus" - Richard Stammers, Charley Henley, Trevor Wood, Paul Butterworth



I think this one comes down to the comic books.

My Pick:  The Dark Knight Rises

The Ee Rising Star Award (Voted For By The Public) 



Elizabeth Olsen


Andrea Riseborough


Suraj Sharma


Juno Temple


Alicia Vikander

They are brilliant, but only one is so exquisite I can not wait to see her do a modern film.

My Pick:  Alicia Vikander

Argo Poised for Far Go

Regardless of the 1995 Apollo 13 comparison's Argo should be the prohibitive favorite for the Best Picture Oscar after Affleck score's the Director's Guild of America's top prize.

Braveheart won the Best Picture Oscar in 1995 despite a near sweep of awards for Ron Howard and Apollo 13.  Like Affleck this year, Howard was not nominated in the Best Director Oscar category that year.

Although Apollo 13 swept the guild awards, a fairly reliable bellwether, it did not have the critical acclaim that Argo has garnered.

Argo has won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, New York Film Critics and National Board of Review film award.  It has also swept the guilds.  Pair that with Director wins for Argo for all of the major critical and guild awards and Argo has a head of steam that would be hard to overcome.

Lincoln is a fine film made great by its historical weight, screenplay and the performance of its lead actor.  It may well be a classic film.  It is just not the best film this year.  That distinction belongs to Argo.

The Hangover

Hangover:  The day after the awards when the limos turn into Prius and the stars trade their Gucci and Wang for yoga pants and ball caps.

The 19th annual SAG awards is in the books and as far as film there were no major upsets. 

1) Argo won for outstanding performance by a cast. 

2) Jennifer Lawrence won for outstanding performance by a female actor. 

3) Daniel Day-lewis won for outstanding performance by a male actor. 

4) Anne Hathaway won for outstanding performance in a supporting role by a female actor.

5) Tommy Lee Jones outstanding performance in a supporting role by a male actor.

As slight as the categories for film are at the SAG awards it is perhaps the biggest bellweather for the Academy Awards.

With the producers and actors both giving the nod to Argo (as well as the Critics and Hollywood Foreign Press), the MPAA director's snub of Affleck is looking more and more like lobbying for Spielberg. 

Although Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are brilliant films, they appear to be thrown into the director's category as chum for Lincoln, effectively keeping other "sharks" their size (Argo, Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty) outside the tank.  So unless a write-in candidate is allowed for director (I doubt it) the only backlash may ironically be Ang Lee's stranded at sea epic The Life of Pi.  

Spielberg and Lee are both legendary directors.  Lincoln is an instant classic and perhaps my second favorite film of the year.  I read and watched the Life of Pi and loved it.  Spielberg and Lee are both deserving directors.  

I also realize that Affleck is a directing "outsider".  However, he directed the most compelling film this year and is deserving of the Academy Award.  

By effectively locking him out, the director's category will become a footnote and an asterisk unless Lincoln can somehow pull off best picture and best director.  That is looking more like a longshot, no matter how many Presidents present for Lincoln.

We will find out more when the director's awards are revealed next Sunday, February 3rd.

The five winners are of the SAG film awards are now the frontrunners for Oscar gold. Argo, Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway had the momentum coming into SAG.  Now SAG has clarified Jennifer Lawrence and Tommy Lee Jones as favorites in their categories going out.  Anything other than those five for the awards will be at least a minor upset.

It looks like the bloodbath category may be animation where Frankenweenie, Brave and Wreck It Ralph will duke it out.

Happy Screening!

Screen Actors Guild Film Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards are all about the acting.  There are no technical, production or direction categories.  This means the list of awards is short and more time is spent on TV categories than film.  As you may already know, I rarely turn on my TV unless it is to play a DVD or Borderlands 2.  So here are my choices and predictions.

1) Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role

            Bradley Cooper / Pat - "Silver Linings Playbook" (The Weinstein Company)

            Daniel Day-lewis / Abraham Lincoln - "Lincoln" (Touchstone Pictures)

            John Hawkes / Mark - "The Sessions" (FOX Searchlight)

            Hugh Jackman / Jean Valjean - "Les Misérables" (Universal Pictures)

            Denzel Washington / Whip Whitaker - "Flight" (Paramount Pictures)

The Lowdown:  A case can be made that peers might look at the complexity of roles for Hugh Jackman or John Hawkes as possible winners. The buzz says Daniel Day-Lewis will win and I believe deservedly so.  D.D.L might as well be a shape shifter.

My Choice: Daniel Day-lewis for Lincoln

Predicted SAG Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis/Lincoln

2) Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role

            Jessica Chastain / Maya - "Zero Dark Thirty" (Columbia Pictures)

            Marion Cotillard / Stephanie - "Rust And Bone" (sony Pictures Classics)

            Jennifer Lawrence / Tiffany - "Silver Linings Playbook" (The Weinstein Company)

            Helen Mirren / Alma Reville - "Hitchcock" (FOX Searchlight)

            Naomi Watts / Maria - "The Impossible" (Summit Entertainment)

The Lowdown:  I am mesmerized by Marion Cotillard and she gives a first rate performance in Rust and Bone.  However, this award comes down to Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain. Every indication is that it is a coin flip.  The x-factor is the politically charged torture issue with the film “Zero Dark Thirty”.  I do not think SAG members will hold the decision of the writer/director against Chastain in general, it may mean the one or two votes needed to get Lawrence the award.  Lawrence deserves it anyway.

My Choice: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.

Predicted SAG Winner: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role

            Alan Arkin / Lester Siegel - "Argo" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

            Javier Bardem / Silva - "Skyfall" (Columbia Pictures)

            Robert De Niro / Pat, Sr. - "Silver Linings Playbook" (The Weinstein Company)

            Philip Seymour Hoffman / Lancaster Dodd - "The Master" (The Weinstein Company)

            Tommy Lee Jones / Thaddeus Stevens - "Lincoln" (Touchstone Pictures)

The Lowdown:  This category is a complete toss up.  Buzz has Tommy Lee Jones, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Alan Arkin as possible winners.  Sentimentality would put Arkin and Jones ahead.  Hopefully SAG will not ignore what I believe was one of DeNiro’s most compelling performances as the OCD father in Silver Linings Playbook.

My Choice: Robert DeNiro for Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted SAG Winner:  Alan Arkin for Argo.

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role

            Sally Field / Mary Todd Lincoln - "Lincoln" (Touchstone Pictures)

            Anne Hathaway / Fantine - "Les Misérables" (Universal Pictures)

            Helen Hunt / Cheryl - "The Sessions" (FOX Searchlight)

            Nicole Kidman / Charlotte Bless - "The Paperboy" (Millennium Entertainment)

            Maggie Smith / Muriel Donnelly - "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" (FOX Searchlight)

The Lowdown:  Anne Hathaway is the frontrunner in this category and I would be surprised if she doesn’t sweep each of the award shows.  However, look out for Sally Field and Helen Hunt who are acting favorites. Neither has gotten as much love as they deserve.  (Note: Although she has done many wonderful roles, Nicole Kidman's portrayal in The Paperboy does not belong in this category) 

My Choice: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables

Predicted SAG Winner: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables

Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture

Argo (Warner Bros. Pictures)            

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (FOX Searchlight)

Les Misérables (Universal Pictures)                                             

Lincoln (Touchstone Pictures)

Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Company)

The Lowdown:  Each of these movies is a showcase for acting talent.  SAG members will not forget even the slightest role.  However, there seems to be a ground swell in Hollywood for Argo.  Argo has won every major movie and directing award thus far, including the Producer’s Guild Award for Best Picture last night.  The fact that the MPAA director’s nominating committee completely skipped directing nominations for Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and one of their own, Ben Affleck (Argo) may have them seeing red.  Anything is possible (Les Mis or Silver Linings may be spoilers) but I like Argo to win.

My Choice: Argo

Predicted SAG Winner: Argo