Regardless of the 1995 Apollo 13 comparison's Argo should be the prohibitive favorite for the Best Picture Oscar after Affleck score's the Director's Guild of America's top prize.
Braveheart won the Best Picture Oscar in 1995 despite a near sweep of awards for Ron Howard and Apollo 13. Like Affleck this year, Howard was not nominated in the Best Director Oscar category that year.
Although Apollo 13 swept the guild awards, a fairly reliable bellwether, it did not have the critical acclaim that Argo has garnered.
Argo has won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, New York Film Critics and National Board of Review film award. It has also swept the guilds. Pair that with Director wins for Argo for all of the major critical and guild awards and Argo has a head of steam that would be hard to overcome.
Lincoln is a fine film made great by its historical weight, screenplay and the performance of its lead actor. It may well be a classic film. It is just not the best film this year. That distinction belongs to Argo.
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